000 AXNT20 KNHC 170000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE HAS COME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N17W TO 8N18W AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N E OF 19W. TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N29W TO 5N34W MOVING W AT 15 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE IS IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 30W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N46W TO 6N48W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N52W TO 9N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR WAVE...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N82W TO 10N84W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 19N W OF 80W. S OF THAT LATITUDE STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO NORTHERN SENEGAL...IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N19W TO 7N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N47W TO 7N53W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 22W- 29W...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 49W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MICHIGAN TO A BASE OVER THE NE GULF COASTLINE. TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W SW TO 29N90W TO THE SE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N94W. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N82W TO 27N87W TO 27N91W. ALOFT AND SOUTH OF THE NE GULF COASTLINE THERE IS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N. OTHERWISE...A 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N93W. VARIABLE WINDS OF 10 KT ARE BASIN-WIDE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG A SHORT- WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS CAUSING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER CUBA TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ISLAND- WIDE. SOUTH OF CUBA A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 84W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 19N W OF 80W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GENERATING A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-78W. OTHERWISE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W BASIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION THU MORNING WHILE A NEW WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ISLAND-WIDE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CEASE BY THU MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW N ATLC AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE REGION ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 74W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N71W SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 63W-71W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N52W. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N35W SW TO 27N42W TO 27N48W BUT WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR