000 AXNT20 KNHC 150541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N42W TO 17N39W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N64W TO 19N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N96W TO 20N95W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ENERGY ALOFT EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 87W-94W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 08N22W TO 08N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N31W TO 10N42W TO 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 19W-25W AND FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 52W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 29W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION SW TO OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N100W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FOCUS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS IN THE VICINITY OF 30N88W OVER THE ALABAMA GULF COAST THAT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 86W-90W. OTHERWISE...THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AT THE SURFACE DUE TO A RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 26N. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 20N ALONG 95W MOVING WEST ACROSS THE EXTREME SW GULF WATERS AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS S OF 21N. LOOKING AHEAD...THE WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 25N THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TEXAS AND MOVES E-NE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... OVERALL AT THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 69W-81W. OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND LESSER ANTILLES. FINALLY...THE PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS NOTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-78W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AREAL COVERAGE GROWS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ...HISPANIOLA... EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING ACROSS THE ISLAND. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN CUBA. HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO FIND ITSELF WITHIN A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A SW NORTH ATLC TROUGH LIES OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS LIKELY FOR THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N73W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 22N74W. THE TROUGHING IS GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 72W-80W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N63W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N67W TO 30N67W. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 59W-66W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N51W AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN