000 AXNT20 KNHC 141800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N34W TO 8N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH DRY AIR IS HINDERING CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 10N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT. DEEP LAYER MOIST AIR IS SE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 52W-60W. THE REST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOWS FAIRLY DRY IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ON S-SE MEXICO AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N91W TO 10N93W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE E PAC WATERS AND SE COAST OF MEXICO BEING ENHANCED BY A REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 7N21W TO 8N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N28W TO 10N35W...THEN RESUMES FROM 9N38W TO 9N51W TO 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W- 27W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 28W-35W...FROM 6N-11N W OF 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING...RETURN FLOW AND A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N94W TO 19N97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N91W TO 18N92W...THEN INTO THE E PAC WATERS. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN THE SW GULF. OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N87W TO 28N90W TO 28N94W WITH SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-94W. AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 86W-91W AND OVER COASTAL WATERS FROM ST PETERSBURG TO FORT MYERS. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RUNS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...ALONG THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SW BASIN. A BROAD REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND JAMAICA. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-83W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN STARTING THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND WITH A DIFFLUENCE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE SW N ATLC...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N72W CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N E OF 73W...INCLUDING ANDROS...GRAND BAHAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N63W SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 58W-65W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR