000 AXNT20 KNHC 141036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N37W TO 17N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-40W AND AN AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED NEAR 12N36W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N57W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ REGION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N89W TO 20N89W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOCUSED ON ENERGY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS STRETCHING WESTWARD OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N82W TO 19N88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 10N22W TO 10N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N29W TO 09N37W TO 08N46W TO 07N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 12W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 31W- 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 51W- 59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS WITHIN GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 35N84W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N100W. GIVEN THE FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ALOFT...THE RESULTING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS WELL. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA W-SW TO 26N97W IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 82W-84W...N OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-93W...AND S OF 21N BETWEEN 94W-97W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 20N ALONG 89W MOVING WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND EAST PACIFIC WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 25N-28N THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W...OVERALL AT THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL FEATURE ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE...IS THE PERSISTENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR HISPANIOLA REMAINS STABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N72W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...HOWEVER REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N50W SW TO BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W-81W...HOWEVER MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND QUICK MOVING. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N62W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N63W TO 21N66W. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 58W-65W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE 1027 MB HIGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN