000 AXNT20 KNHC 140548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 15N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 28W-37W AND AN AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED NEAR 11N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N59W TO 18N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ REGION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N88W TO 21N87W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOCUSED ON ENERGY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GUATEMALA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 82W-91W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 10N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N280W TO 10N34W TO 08N44W TO 10N59W TO 09N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 10W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W...AND WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS WITHIN GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. GIVEN THE FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ALOFT...THE RESULTING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING AS WELL. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N89W IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 85W-88W...FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-84W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-93W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 21N ALONG 87W MOVING WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 87W-95W... INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD... THE WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 25N-28N THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W...OVERALL AT THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL FEATURE ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE...IS THE PERSISTENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... EARLIER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR HISPANIOLA REMAINS STABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N72W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...HOWEVER REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N50W SW TO BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING W OF 70W...HOWEVER MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND QUICK MOVING. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N62W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N63W TO 21N66W. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 58W-65W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE 1028 MB HIGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN