000 AXNT20 KNHC 120600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N34W TO 7N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TO THE NORTH THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N72W TO 9N75W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 9N86W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 77W RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER WATER AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N15W TO 9N26W TO 8N35W. IT THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N37W TO 6N47W TO 4N51W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FROM 7N-11N E OF 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER COLORADO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS TO SUPPORT A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER AND EASTERN GULF FROM THE SW N ATLC. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST. MOISTURE AT THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALONG WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N E OF 83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS N OF THIS REGION OF CONVECTION AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 110 NM OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 92W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA WHERE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-85W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 74W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED IN PART BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE OUT OF THE BASIN BY MON MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED TO THE W-NW OF THE ISLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND IS PLACING HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SLOWLY BY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER COLORADO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E-SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC. THIS ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN ALOFT IS FAVORING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH ALONG MOIST AIR ON THE REGION SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 79W AS WELL AS S OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LOW SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR