000 AXNT20 KNHC 112357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N34W TO 17N33W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N70W TO 19N69W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY JET ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 65W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N71W TO 12N61W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N80W TO 18N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 08N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N16W TO 07N18W TO 10N31W TO 07N38W TO 08N47W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND RELATIVELY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N85W TO 25N93W. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE LIES ALONG 30N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W. GIVEN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFTING DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N83W TO 30N85W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DRY AIR REMAINS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 73W- 88W...WITH MORE MOISTURE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND WITHIN A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N85W NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND 90W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS E OF 73W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W SE TO TOBAGO NEAR 11N61W. FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA THIS EVENING DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 19N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED TO THE W-NW OF THE ISLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA AND IS PLACING HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SLOWLY BY MONDAY ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA INLAND TO NORTHERN GEORGIA. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 29N76W THAT SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 30N...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N79W TO 28N77W AND PRIMARILY W OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THIS AREA BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND BERMUDA TO CUBA LINE. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N50W. THE ONLY INTERESTING FEATURE NOTED IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N58W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N- 29N BETWEEN 54W-64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN