000 AXNT20 KNHC 111742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N29W TO 10N32W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THEREFORE...NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W MOVING NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SPIKE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS PROVING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR TOBAGO ALONG 13N64W TO 14N69W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N75W ACROSS E CUBA AND JAMAICA ALONG 16N78W TO 11N79W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE...NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N33W 7N44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-40W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N51W TO 9N56W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N88W TO 27N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZES AT 11/1500 UTC ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 30N84W TO 24N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. NCEP DUST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE AEROSOLS OVER THE NW GULF AND THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HAZE N OF 26N W OF 93W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO OVER TAMPICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W AND COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 80W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 71W. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ALONG 10N79W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 80W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS THE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY SAT NIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 71W. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES W AS WELL. THIS SCENARIO WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA COVERS THE SW ATLC AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 58W-64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N48W. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 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