000 AXNT20 KNHC 110600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N25W TO 9N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WAVE CONTINUE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER...THEREFORE NO CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 26W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING NEAR 15N62W TO 7N64W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E-SE OF A LINE FROM 18N64W TO 13N71W. TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N72W TO 10N72W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 9N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N38W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 4N- 8N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE GULF THUS SUSTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 28N86W AND PROVIDES E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5- 15 KT ACROSS ALL THE GULF QUADRANTS BUT THE NE. EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN GULF AT THE LOWER-LEVELS...DEEP LAYER MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE W GULF...BOTH DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBIT CONVECTION. THE EASTERN BASIN IS ALSO DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORING AIR LIFTING. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE N-NE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BETWEEN 64W-80W. EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN WHERE DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS LINGERS...THE REMAINDER BASIN SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE THE SW AND CENTRAL BASIN HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS A TROUGH TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SE CUBA. ...HISPANIOLA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS A TROUGH TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS HAITI COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW TO EASTERN CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAPPENING IN THE BASIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC AS WELL AS THE NORTH ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...A WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEE THE TROPICAL SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE MORE INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...BESIDES A SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE SW N ATLC...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR