000 AXNT20 KNHC 102356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N24W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SINCE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N60W TO 07N61W MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 57W-65W...AND INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 61W-66W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N69W TO 11N70W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IS HINDERING CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 09N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N24W TO 07N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 04N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-30W...AND BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...OVER THE SE GULF STATES FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 87W- 91W...INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 94W-111W...OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 19N...AND OVER W CUBA W OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 95W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 27N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL MAXIMUM. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...ALL DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N...WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N-17N W OF 72W...WHERE AN AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER REMAINS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA PARTIALLY DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ADDITION OF MORE CONVECTION DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N47W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS N OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N53W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N15W. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA