000 AXNT20 KNHC 101051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA LATE WED NIGHT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N22W TO 10N25W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SINCE THE WAVE IS COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 320 NM SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING NEAR 14N54W TO 5N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS BEING ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 12N BETWEEN 50W-61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO 12N68W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 10N20W TO 8N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 8N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N38W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3N50W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-32W AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE GULF THUS SUSTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 27N85W AND PROVIDES E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5- 15 KT ACROSS ALL THE GULF QUADRANTS BUT THE NE. EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEEP LAYER MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ON THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE FAR SW WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THIS REGION FROM 20N-27N W OF 93W BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI MORNING BEING SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE 64W-83W WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL-EASTERN BASIN...THE REMAINDER BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SW BASIN AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ISLAND AND TSMTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW TO EASTERN CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING AN AXIS SE INTO ADJACENT SW N ATLC WATERS WHERE ALONG DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 77W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. BESIDES A SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE SW N ATLC...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR