000 AXNT20 KNHC 100559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING NEAR 13N51W TO 5N52W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 50W- 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N59W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W TO 7N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N38W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE GULF THUS SUSTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER FORT MYERS COASTAL WATERS WHICH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS ALL THE GULF QUADRANTS BUT THE NE. EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEEP LAYER MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AS WELL AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-27N W OF 94W. SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI MORNING BEING SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE TO 83W WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXCEPT FOR THE NW AND NE CARIBBEAN...THE REMAINDER BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SW BASIN AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW TO EASTERN CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDS TO ADJACENT SW N ATLC WATERS WHERE ALONG DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. BESIDES A SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE SW N ATLC...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR