000 AXNT20 KNHC 092345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 14N47W TO 07N50W AND IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 50W- 55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N58W TO 15N62W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 20 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 10N20W TO 07N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 07N28W AND CONTINUES TO 07N47W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 05N52W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 55W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N96W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF STATES FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W...AND PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 94W-111W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 85W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 27N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N...TO INCLUDE MEXICO THE N GULF STATES AND FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL MAXIMUM. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...N COSTA RICA...AND N COLOMBIA...ALL DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N...WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A FAIRLY LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING. CURRENTLY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N42W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS N OF 24N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N52W AND 20N18W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA