000 AXNT20 KNHC 081750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N36W TO 13N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK AND RELATIVELY FAST WESTWARD MOVING 700 MB TROUGH AND 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 08N39W OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER REMAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS SOMEWHAT LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 38W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N53W TO 16N49W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE ALSO REMAINING MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER THUS RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N94W TO 22N91W MOVING W AT 20 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA S-SW INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 07N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N26W TO 05N30W TO 06N38W TO 02N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 40W- 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR 32N83W SW TO 28N97W THEN WEST TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N100W. GIVEN THE OVERALL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF COAST... MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SURFACE FRONTS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY...AMPLE MID-LEVEL LIFT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 85W- 98W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-92W. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 28N TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 27N THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE WATERS NEAR THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT THAT SHIFT MORE WESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LARGEST IMPACT...ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS S OF 18N BETWEEN 84W-86W...CONTINUES TO BE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-83W. RECENT ASCAT DATA FROM A PASS AROUND 08/1414 UTC INDICATED THE STRONGEST CORE OF WIND S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-77W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WHOLE AREA OF TRADE WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CLOUDINESS OR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N83W NE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N67W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE PRIMARILY LIES TO THE NW OF THIS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LARGELY COINCIDE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N60W SW TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W... WHILE ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N55W TO 31N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. THIS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N40W THAT INFLUENCES A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOTED E OF 25W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE SW COAST OF PORTUGAL TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN