000 AXNT20 KNHC 081035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N36W TO 3N36W AND MOVING W AT 20 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ENGULFING THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N46W TO 3N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHILE DRY AIR FROM THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENTRAINS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N89W TO 14N91W AND MOVES NEAR 20-25 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE E PAC WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 6N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N26W TO 4N35W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 2N39W TO 3N50W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N E OF 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA SW TO EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTING A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ADJACENT E PAC WATERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF TO PROVIDE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT. DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N-27N W OF 88W AS WELL AS S OF 20N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 78W-84W AS WELL AS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE AZORES HIGH IS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLIES OF 20-30 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-78W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING CLOSE TO THE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA COASTS. WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...A COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR FROM THE SAHARA KEEP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONVECTIVE FREE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN BASIN WED MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING AS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE SW N ATLC...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N72W SW TO ANDROS NEAR 25N77W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 71W-79W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N46W TO 24N51W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 14N WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR