000 AXNT20 KNHC 080605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N29W TO 3N32W AND MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ENGULFING THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE AXIS COINCIDING WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 33W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N46W TO 3N49W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHILE DRY AIR FROM THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENTRAINS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N87W TO 12N88W AND MOVES NEAR 20 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME BEING INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER-LEVELS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 21N97W TO 14N95W AND MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS INLAND FROM MEXICO CITY TO OAXACA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N34W TO 6N46W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 6N50W TO 5N54W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N E OF 15W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 35W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALABAMA SW TO EASTERN MEXICO SUPPORTING A TROPICAL WAVE INLAND MEXICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF TO PROVIDE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT. DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE S OF 26N W OF 87W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS. HOWEVER...LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 20N W OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN-CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. THE AZORES HIGH IS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLIES OF 20-30 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-77W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING CLOSE TO THE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA COAST. WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...A COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR FROM THE SAHARA KEEP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONVECTIVE FREE. HOWEVER...DUST FROM THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS SUPPORTING HAZE IN THIS REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS...REPORTED ACROSS THE ISLAND...IS SUPPORTING HAZE IN THE REGION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE SW N ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N74W SW TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 72W-76W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-28N W OF 72W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N49W TO 25N51W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 13N WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR