000 AXNT20 KNHC 072305 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 03N30W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 07N30W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 6N. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W TO 03N47W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N83W TO 10N83W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH WITH ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N95W TO 15N96W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND ON THE SUNY- ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS AT 700 MB DEPICTS THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N32W TO 05N40W TO 06N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 06N48W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 06N54W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. MOSTLY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA AS SEEN ON ASCAT SCATTEROMETER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A FAIRLY LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR A FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N49W TO 25N51W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N30W. THE EQUATORWARD PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN USUAL AND IS PRODUCING E TO NE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W. MORE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED NEAR 28N54W AND 23N42W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA