000 AXNT20 KNHC 071747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 02N25W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 08N29W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NMOF THE TROUGH AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 04N46W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE WAVE HAS LIKELY DISPERSED A PORTION OF ITS ENERGY INTO A MID-LATITUDE AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH WHICH LIES TO THE WEST N OF 12N BETWEEN 45-50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 22N78W TO 10N83W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH WITH ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N93W TO 15N95W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THW TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND ON THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS AT 700 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N29W TO 06N42W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 08N47W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 08N60W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 31W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA AS SEEN IN AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A FAIRLY LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR A FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W. ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W. A THIRD 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N28W. THE EQUATORWARD PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN USUAL AND IS PRODUCING E TO NE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N71W. ISOLATED MODERTQAE CONVECTION IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 70W-80W. MORE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED NEAR 28N55W AND 23N42W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA