000 AXNT20 KNHC 062355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N21W TO 14N24W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO KEEP A RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION THROUGH TODAY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1132 UTC INDICATED THE WAVE EXHIBITED STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS AN AREA S-SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AS OF THIS EVENING...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 21W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N33W TO 17N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THE WAVE HAS LIKELY DISPERSED A PORTION OF ITS ENERGY INTO A MID-LATITUDE AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH WHICH LIES TO THE WEST N OF 12N BETWEEN 35W-42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 21N75W MOVING W AT 25 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH THE MOST IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE VICINITY OF 19N76W. OTHERWISE...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 73W-82W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N95W TO 23N90W MOVING W AT 25 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT REMAINS FAIRLY DIFFLUENT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. ASSOCIATED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA S OF 19N BETWEEN 90W-95W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 08N21W TO 09N33W TO 06N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N39W TO 04N44W TO 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 23W...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING. WHILE NO SURFACE FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 86W-99W. TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W THAT IS PROVIDING AMPLE MID- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 83W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF MOBILE BAY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 31N81W AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT TO 28N83W TO 25N85W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED. OTHERWISE... RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N92W MAINTAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N74W TO A BASE NEAR 11N80W. RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. AT THE SURFACE...GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS...25 TO 30 KT S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-77W AS DEPICTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1454 UTC. THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W ARE GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N74W. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY IS FORECAST AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMPACTS THE ISLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT SW NORTH ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N81W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORT OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N81W TO 33N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N WEST OF A LINE FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N73W TO 24N78W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N74W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 66W- 73W. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES A MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N29W AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N53W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ONE FROM 22N-30N ALONG 37W AND LARGELY THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N39W...AND THE OTHER FROM 23N-30N ALONG 47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WESTERN-MOST TROUGH AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN