000
AXNT20 KNHC 061751
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N32W TO 20N30W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NOTED TO THE W AND N OF THE 
WAVE WHICH CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N-11N ALONG 73W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMPACTS 
OVERALL STABILITY WITH THE WAVE AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22NN89W TO 12N91W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W. 
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 8N23W TO 11N30W 
THEN RESUMES AT 11N33W 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 19W-25W. 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS SE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE GULF S OF 25N E OF 
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 26N E OF 94W. A 1019 MB 
SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF CENTERED NEAR 28N89W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 30N84W TO 
26N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE FLORIDA COASTAL 
WATERS FROM 29N-25N.


CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES IS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM 
WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN FROM 73W-83W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-82W,,,OTHERWISE NO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
A FEW SHOWERS AMD TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL 
ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION CHANCES OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING 
MAXIMUM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS 
OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA FROM 23N-32N W OF 77W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N73W 
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
ARE E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 66W-70W, 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N55W TO 
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 8N-25N BETWEEN 
35W-60W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 30N37W...WITH DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
AT 22N17W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 19W-
25W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS