000 AXNT20 KNHC 061216 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 20N28W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EASILY TRACKED IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 700 MB TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE GFS AS WELL AS THE EARLIER ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE...WHICH CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N71W TO 23N71W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY EASY TO IDENTIFY ON BOTH THE SHORT-WAVE GOES-E SATELLITE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE TROPICAL WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMPACTS OVERALL STABILITY WITH THE WAVE AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N90W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 24N87W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS APPARENT IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 700 MB TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS...BUT IS OTHERWISE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS LITTLE SURFACE SIGNATURE IS PRESENT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA IN POSSIBLE ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N24W TO 10N33W TO 06N58W IN SOUTH AMERICA. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 15W-21W. THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N83W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND EXTENDS TO 10N75W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS PRESENT OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING NEAR 28N88W...AND WITH GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WAS PROMOTING SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS HAS ENDED EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND LEAVING BEHIND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER- LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF COLLIDING SEA BREEZES AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...CONTINUED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINLY IN AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ENE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DEEP CONVECTION FLARED YESTERDAY OVER CUBA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LATTER ENHANCED BY THE WESTERNMOST EASTERLY WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OR GREATER ANTILLES. THE EASTERNMOST EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA... CUBA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD BE DRIER. ...HISPANIOLA... NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA CURRENTLY. AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION CHANCES OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMUM. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N39W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 30N60W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO MOROCCO. THE RESULTING NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF GENERALLY GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF 76W N OF 27N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHOULD PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SURFACE TROUGHS ARE LOCATED FROM 27N48W TO 31N47W AND FROM 21N35W TO 30N35W...BUT NEITHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXTENDING FROM 28W TO 58W...AS SEEN BOTH IN THE EARLIER GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA