000 AXNT20 KNHC 060559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N33W TO 19N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EASILY TRACKED IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 700 MB TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE GFS AS WELL AS THE 2300Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE...WHICH CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N63W TO 22N66W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY EASY TO IDENTIFY ON BOTH THE SHORT-WAVE GOES-E SATELLITE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE TROPICAL WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMPACTS OVERALL STABILITY WITH THE WAVE AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N86W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 21N86W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS APPARENT IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 700 MB TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS...BUT IS OTHERWISE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS LITTLE SURFACE SIGNATURE IS PRESENT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA IN POSSIBLE ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N24W TO 08N35W TO 04N51W IN BRAZIL. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ W OF 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TWO SURFACE HIGHS ARE PRESENT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING...1019 MB NEAR 24N95W AND 1020 MB NEAR 28N90W...AND WITH GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WAS EARLIER PROMOTING SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THOUGH THIS HAS ENDED LEAVING BEHIND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF COLLIDING SEA BREEZES AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...CONTINUED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINLY IN AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING AND CONVERGING SEA BREEZES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ENE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DEEP CONVECTION FLARED EARLIER OVER CUBA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LATTER ENHANCED BY THE WESTERNMOST EASTERLY WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OR GREATER ANTILLES. THE EASTERNMOST EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA... CUBA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE DRIER. ...HISPANIOLA... A SMALL THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PORT-AU-PRINCE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXTENSIVE. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION CHANCES OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMUM. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N40W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO MOROCCO. THE RESULTING NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF GENERALLY GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W TO 32N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF 76W N OF 27N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHOULD PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED FROM 27N47W TO 32N48W AND FROM 22N33W TO 30N34W...BUT NEITHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXTENDING FROM 28W TO 58W...AS SEEN BOTH IN THE EARLIER GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA