000 AXNT20 KNHC 041201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 36.7N 74.4W AT 04/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 105 NM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MOVING NE AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. THE EYE OF ARTHUR IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE STORM CENTER. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EXTENDS FROM 20N19W TO 09N22W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11N21W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N50W TO 10N49W IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT AND IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH THE WAVE DUE TO BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N66W TO 12N72W AND IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE WAVE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO 11N91W AND IS MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 14.7N92.4W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N98W TO 12N97W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO 06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N27W TO 07N40W TO 03N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05.5N12W TO 07.5N16.5W TO 06.5N23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94.5W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. OVER THE NE GULF SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SE LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE RIDGING ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE GULF SECTION CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. FURTHER TO THE EAST A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 12N77W. RESULTING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 72W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W TO HISPANIOLA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED UP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N30W AND IS MOVING S 10- 15 KT. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SW. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 31N55W TO 23N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB