000 AXNT20 KNHC 040637 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 35.1N 76.2W AT 04/0500 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM NNE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...OVER THE SHACKLEFORD BANKS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND BEAUFORT NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION IS STRONGEST OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EXTENDS FROM 19N18W TO 10N21W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST AND EXTENDS INLAND ABOUT 120 NM. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 21N49W TO 10N47W IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT AND IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH THE WAVE DUE TO BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N65W TO 13N72W AND IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE WAVE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N87W TO 11N91W AND IS MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W AND OVER WESTERN HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO 11N95W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 07N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N26W TO 07N40W TO 04N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 19W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27.5N95W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. OVER THE NE GULF SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SE LOUISIANA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE RIDGING ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE GULF SECTION CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. FURTHER TO THE EAST A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 12N76W. RESULTING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 72W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO HISPANIOLA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED UP TO 15 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N29W AND IS MOVING S 10- 15 KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 31N55W TO 23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB