000 AXNT20 KNHC 031202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 31.8N 78.7W AS OF 03/1200 UTC...OR ABOUT 130 NM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA... MOVING N-NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A TURN TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED FROM 28N TO 34N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 42W FROM 10N TO 23N...MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N61W TO 10N64W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N79W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W INCLUDING NE NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO 14N94W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 08N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG TO 07N40W TO 04N54W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN/ OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED S OF 25N W OF 90W. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED E OF 70W...MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W ACROSS PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED W OF THE AXIS TO NEAR 70W AND E OF THE AXIS TO A LINE THROUGH 32N45W TO 17N50W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM AN OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N32W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE S TO NEAR 29N30W IN 48 HOURS. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 22N. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N66W TO 27N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB