000 AXNT20 KNHC 030556 TWDAT TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 79.1W AS OF 03/0600 UTC...OR ABOUT 140 MILES SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA... MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. ARTHUR IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 40W FROM 10N TO 23N...MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N58W TO 10N63W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N78W TO 10N83W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W INCLUDING EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 14N93W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 09N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N45W TO 05N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95.5W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN/ OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED S OF 25N W OF 91W. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27.5N93W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED E OF 66W...MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED W OF THE AXIS TO NEAR 70W AND E OF THE AXIS TO A LINE THROUGH 32N45W TO 18N50W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM AN OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 34N34W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE S TO NEAR 29N30W IN 48 HOURS. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 22N. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N56W WITH A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB