000 AXNT20 KNHC 020552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 79.1W AT 02/0600 UTC...OR ABOUT 95 MILES ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND MOVING N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ARTHUR WILL BE STEERED NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE E OF THE CAROLINAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 30W FROM 11N TO 23N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO ENHANCED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 54W FROM 09N TO 21N...OR ABOUT 420 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION BUT DOES EXHIBIT A TYPICAL WAVE STRUCTURE AND IS EASILY IDENTIFIED IN THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N71W TO 11N72W AND IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 83W FROM 09N TO 20N AND MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 08N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N30W AND CONTINUES TO 06N40W TO 04N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 27N95W AND HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28.5N89W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND BECOME MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 40 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... EARLIER HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ISLAND HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY COVER HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W WITH THE AXIS LOCATED THROUGH 32N57W TO 18N63W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A WEAKENING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N37W AND IS MOVING N ABOUT 20 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 23N38W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 33N69W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH TO 25N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A 1018 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 30N55W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W TO THE LOW CENTER AND THEN CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT TO 25N60W. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB