000
AXNT20 KNHC 011742
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM 
ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 27.6N 79.3W AT 1500 UTC IS MOVING NW AT 
2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. A LARGE AREA 
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-227.5N W OF 77W TO THE FLORIDA 
COAST. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING ALONG 25W/26W FROM 19N TO 9N...MOVING W 15 KT. SAHARAN 
AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N70W TO 10N71W...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 
79W FROM 10N-19N..MOVING W 15 KT WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH IT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N17W 
TO 4N39W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N39W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-23W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...  
                                      
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE 
S TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N96W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 21N W OF 88W. OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 23N W OF 91W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT 
COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...                                       

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE NW CARIBBEAN 
CENTERED NEAR 20N81W. OTHERWISE MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 
ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 45 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N BETWEEN
75W-84W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. OTHERWISE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS HISPANIOLA. 
SHOWERS MAY INCREASE TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE 
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 72W. THE 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 
70W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N57W TO 20N65W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32N47W TO 22N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 31N38W AND IS MOVING NE 
ABOUT 10 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 
22N40W. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N52W TO 
31N54W THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 80 NM EITHER E OF THE 
TROUGH. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N39W TO 24N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS