000 AXNT20 KNHC 301830 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 108 NM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE ATLC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N17W TO 9N18W. DRY AIR ENGULFS THIS WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT CLOSE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N62W TO 9N63W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 12N E OF 67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N71W TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 73W MOVING W AT 20 KT WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS MOVED INTO THE E PAC WATERS. SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N26W TO 5N38W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N38W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N48W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N- 9N E OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-LOWER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. REMNANTS OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING HAZE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 93W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE MEXICO EXTENDS A TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 23N W OF 91W. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE 10-15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. EXCEPT FOR THE SW AND E CARIBBEAN WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ABOUNDS...REMNANTS OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS IS SUPPORTING HAZE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE SW BASIN IS SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS THERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A MONSOON TROUGH INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING 20-25 KT TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 10-20 KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS SHOULD RESULT IN DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GENERALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS OVER THE SW N ATLC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N52W TO 25N64W WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N38W EXTENDS WSW TO 22N58W GENERALLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR