000 AXNT20 KNHC 301050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION IS LIMITED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE ATLC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVING PAST THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N61W TO 10N62W MOVING W AT 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI-TPW IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE CRESTING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N69W TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 70W IS MOVING W AT 20 KT WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 89W HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER WATER IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N22W TO 5N38W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N38W AND CONTINUES TO 3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN TEXAS/LOUISIANA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD BENEATH A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH JUST S OF NEW ORLEANS. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WERE NEAR THE HIGH AND OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF 93W. WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST AND ELSEWHERE W OF 93W. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE GULF. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST CONDITIONS ADVANCING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG 62W. A TONGUE OF VERY DRY SAHARAN AIR IS MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR BUT HAZY CONDITIONS IN MOST OF THE BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A MONSOON TROUGH INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING 20-25 KT TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 10-20 KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS SHOULD RESULT IN DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GENERALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM 33N54W TO 26N65W. THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N42W THROUGH 23N63W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N39W EXTENDING WSW TO THE GREATER ANTILLES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL