000
AXNT20 KNHC 271155
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 24W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST AT 20 
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 25W.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 
AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 
41W AND 49W.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WESTWARD 
AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 
AT 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W 
AND 84W MAINLY RELATED TO MONSOON TROUGH BEING ENHANCED BY WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W 
TO 7N24W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N24W TO 7N38W TO 7N46W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS ACROSS 
COASTAL TEXAS TO NEAR 24N98W. ACTIVE CONVECTIVE IS OCCURRING E 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTION. SURFACE 
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO A 1019 MB 
STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 29N86W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO IS RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE 
REGION EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS BEING SUSTAINED BY 
A MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS NW COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN PANAMA. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS 
15-20 KT TRADES EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KT IN N 
CENTRAL AND NW SECTIONS. THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE 
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ALONG 83W TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...             
 
THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING CONVECTION 
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN 
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N52W TO 27N55W AND 
18N65W. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 24N40W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N16W TO 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 34N40W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN... 
WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL