000
AXNT20 KNHC 270602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST AT 20 
KT. THE WAVE TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS 
IT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA LAST NIGHT...BUT CONVECTION IS 
MINIMAL TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM AFRICA INTO OPEN WATER.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 
AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 
44W AND 48W.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WESTWARD 
AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 
AT 20 KNOTS. NEARBY SHOWERS MAY BE MORE RELATED TO MONSOON 
TROUGH ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W 
TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N24W TO 5N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS ACROSS 
COASTAL TEXAS TO NEAR 24N98W. ACTIVE CONVECTIVE IS OCCURRING E 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTION. SURFACE 
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO A 1019 MB 
STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 28N86W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO IS RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE 
REGION THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SW CARIBBEAN IS 
BEING SUSTAINED BY A MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS NW COLOMBIA 
TO SOUTHERN PANAMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE 
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS 15-20 KT TRADES EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS OF 
AROUND 10-15 KT IN N CENTRAL AND NW SECTIONS. THE TROPICAL WAVE 
DESCRIBED ABOVE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ALONG 
83W LATE TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...             
 
THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING CONVECTION 
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN 
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS 
THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N52W TO 27N55W AND 
18N61W. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 24N44W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N16W TO 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
33N40W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL