000 AXNT20 KNHC 270004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N73W 15N74W...TO 11N75W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL/GAMBIA NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W AND 8N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N33W 9N49W...TO 6N57W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CUTTING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND THE TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...RELATED TO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS FLORIDA FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME. THE 1016 MB ISOBAR CUTS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KCRH WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KGUL WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND FOG...KHQI JUST IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...AND KVQT JUST IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. EDINBURG IS REPORTING HEAVY RAIN. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN MANY PLACES IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A CLOUD CEILING AT 6500 FEET IS BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA FLORIDA. HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND NEIGHBORING CITIES. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS FLORIDA FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N67W 25N72W 23N78W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 30N. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF HAITI...AND IN WEST-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N73W 15N74W...TO 11N75W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N76W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 85W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA... AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI SHOW FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPS EVENTUALLY...WITH A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO BAHAMAS RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.06 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.02 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 6-HOUR FORECAST...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS FLORIDA FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N67W 25N72W 23N78W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 30N. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF HAITI...AND IN WEST-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.04 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.01 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N55W AND 18N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N51W 26N56W 20N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N40W AND 24N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N16W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N39W...TO 31N51W...28N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT