000
AXNT20 KNHC 261820
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 13N ALONG 39W...MOVING W 
AT 15 KNOTS. NO CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N71W TO 11N73W IN 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...MOVING W 15-20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 8N24W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 7N30W TO 9N38W THEN RESUMES 
FROM 9N40W TO 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 92W. 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO A 1019 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 
29N87W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER 
TEXAS GULF COAST.
 
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN 
BASIN. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY IN SW CARIBBEAN IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND 
SW CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...OTHERWISE WINDS 
AROUND 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 77W/78W 
SOUTH OF JAMAICA FRI. 

...HISPANIOLA...             
 
THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING CONVECTION 
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN 
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N67WN75W TO AN UPPER LOW 
NEAR 25N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 32N53W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N34W TO 29N27W. 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N36W 
TO 27N67W. THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT W OF 
THE BAHAMAS...AND E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO THE E OF THE 
BAHAMAS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR 33N40W 
LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS