000
AXNT20 KNHC 261054
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 14N ALONG 38W... 
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY 
ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N70W TO 12N73W IN 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 9N24W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N24W TO 7N29W TO 9N39W TO 5N54W IN 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST 
OF AFRICA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 38W AND 54W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA INTO COASTAL TEXAS 
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. ACTIVE CONVECTIVE IS OCCURRING 
FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
COVERS MOST OF WESTERN PORTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 
29N87W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER 
TEXAS GULF COAST.
 
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE 
REGION THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SW CARIBBEAN IS 
BEING SUSTAINED BY A MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS NW COLOMBIA 
TO SOUTHERN PANAMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE 
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS 15-20 KT TRADES EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS OF 
AROUND 10-15 KT IN N CENTRAL AND NW SECTIONS. THE TROPICAL WAVE 
DESCRIBED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 77W/78W SOUTH OF 
JAMAICA FRI. 

...HISPANIOLA...             
 
THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING CONVECTION 
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN 
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N75W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
26N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A MID-LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 33N53W TO 27N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A 32N38W TO 25N48W TO 18N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W 
TO 27N71W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A 1020 
MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR S-SW 
WINDS OF 5-10 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT TO 
THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO 
NEAR 33N40W LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL