000 AXNT20 KNHC 251134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0250 UTC SHOWED 30-35 KT WINDS CENTERED NEAR 12N74.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 32W IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS INCLUDED IN THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM 16N66W TO 10N70W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20-25 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK IS HINDERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND PRODUCING HAZY SKIES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W TO 9N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR 9N23W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 6N40W TO 2N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER MEXICO INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION W OF 93W LATE TUE. RETURN FLOW ADVECTING MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS FUELING DIURNAL BURSTS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF IS SUPPORTING A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA PROVIDES WEAK ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ADVECTING MOIST AIR TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE W GULF TO FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND A FEW TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 75W. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RACE ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 15N-16N TODAY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOIST AIR ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N76W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1014 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 6N40W. THIS LOW LIES BENEATH THE AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WHICH MAY BE INDUCING A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SURFACE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 29W AND 48W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N37W SOUTHWEST TO THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL