000
AXNT20 KNHC 250601
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 29W MOVING W NEAR 
20 KT. CONVECTIVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO NEAR 
THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM 15N62W TO 
10N66W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20-25 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST FROM A 
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK IS HINDERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE...AND PRODUCING HAZY SKIES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL 
NEAR 12N16W TO 8N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR 7N30W THROUGH A 
1014 MB LOW NEAR 6N38W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...                                         

AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER MEXICO INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL 
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PRODUCED 
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION W OF 93W LATE TUE. RETURN FLOW ADVECTING 
MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS FUELING 
DIURNAL BURSTS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A 
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG 
THE NORTHERN GULF IS SUPPORTING A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 
ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 
27N84W PROVIDES WEAK ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE 
BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ADVECTING MOIST AIR TO THE NORTHERN 
GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE W GULF TO FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...                                       

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER 
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. 
A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND A FEW TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 75W. 
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED MORNING IN THE SOUTH- 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE 
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. TRADES AROUND 15 KT 
DOMINATE THE REST OF REGION EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 79W.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOIST AIR ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. DIURNAL TYPE 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS 
SUPPORTING A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N73W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1014 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN 
THE ITCZ NEAR 5N38W. THIS LOW LIES BENEATH THE AFRICAN EASTERLY 
JET WHICH MAY BE INDUCING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 30-45 NM NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY 
BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N38W SOUTHWESTWARD 
TO THE BAHAMAS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL