000 AXNT20 KNHC 250002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N27W TO 5N28W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. CONVECTIVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO ITS SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT NEARBY THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N61W TO 7N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER NORTH REMNANT DRY AIR AND DUST FROM A FORMER SAHARAN AIR LAYER EVENT IS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZINESS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE E PACIFIC WATERS. SEE THE MIATWDEP FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N19W TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N26W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N29W TO 5N36W AND CONTINUES W OF A 1012 MB LOW FROM 3N40W TO 3N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 22W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OVER MEXICO BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE...RETURN FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN GULF TO ASSIST FUELING THE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-26N W OF 94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NE GULF. THIS IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS REGION. REMNANT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE REMAINS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W PROVIDES SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE W GULF TO FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEAS EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. FARTHER EAST THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS WELL AS ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 75W. OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KNOT DOMINATE THE REGION...EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 79W WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION WED MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SW N ATLC AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER EAST...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N73W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 4N38W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH NORTHWARD TO 10N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 36W-42W. STREAMFUNCTION ANALYSIS DATA AT 700 HPA SHOW THAT THIS LOW LIES BENEATH THE AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WHICH MAY BE INDUCING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N38W SOUTHWARD TO 17N AND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR