000 AXNT20 KNHC 241800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W FOR NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. THE HIGHEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 1402 UTC ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS BUT CAPTURED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS NEAR 12.5N74W. REFER TO MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W FROM 06N TO 15N IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 05N60W TO 17N54W IS MOVING WESTWARD CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED WESTWARD ON THE ANALYSIS BASED ON EASTERLY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS... LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND A 1402 UTC ASCAT PASS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 94W/95W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DISSIPATED OVER WATER WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MAY BE FRACTURING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH. THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W TO 11N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N27W TO 05N40W TO 02N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE 10N16W 7N22W 6N30W 5N39W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND SUBTROPICAL AREAS WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO A BASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. A LEADING SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALABAMA SE TO NEAR 26N85W WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AN EXTENSION OF AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE COVERED THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WAS DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OWING TO A STABLE AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE IS ALONG 29N FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 95W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MAY BE FRACTURING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES 60-90 NM INLAND OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEAS EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED. THE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N78W. THE FLOW WAS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHERE A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N77W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR BLUEFIELDS. AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THAT PART OF THE BASIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED A MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...AND 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N75W IN COLOMBIA AND ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA AS THE DIURNAL PEAK HEATING IS IN FULL SWING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICS CARRIES OVER INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN WHERE A WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N65W AND IS FRACTURING INTO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVELS CYCLONES WAS LOCATED NEAR 27N48W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 12N58W. A NARROW RIDGE WAS INDICATED BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES EXTENDING FROM 32N58W TO 20N68W TO AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. THE FIRST TROUGH SUPPORTED A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W...AND THEN CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 68W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N36W...THROUGH 32N50W 29N57W AND 27N69W...WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB