000 AXNT20 KNHC 241157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 71.5W AND 76W...ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 93W/94W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N107W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N87W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 7N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N25W TO 3N37W AND TO 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE 10N16W 7N22W 6N30W 5N39W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 93W/94W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N107W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N87W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KOPM...AND KGHB AT 6500 FEET. ICAO STATION KVAF IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM PALACIOS...WITH LIGHT RAIN...SOUTHWARD. THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL AND A HIGH LEVEL CEILING. BILOXI MISSISSIPPI IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM MILTON TO PENSACOLA IN THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM MARY ESTHER TO DESTIN. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS TALLAHASSEE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PARTS OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N82W NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W INCLUDING IN MUCH OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18.5N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N67W TO 30N72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W...AND THEN CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 55W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N50W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 32N44W...TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 19N54W AND 8N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N41W...TO 31N51W 29N57W AND 27N69W...WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 25 TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14.5N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 16N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT