000 AXNT20 KNHC 240605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. EXPECT ALSO...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N107W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 12N19W AND 6N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N26W TO 5N31W 6N40W AND TO 9N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N39W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N107W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N86W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N83W ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... TO 26N90W...TO 22N98W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KVBS...AND KGHB. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... AND IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N ALONG 94W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CUBA AND NEARBY WATERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N82W NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA...BEYOND 9N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...AND IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 72W IN VENEZUELA AND 85W IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N67W TO 30N72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 32N76W...BECOMING STATIONARY...AND CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE BORDER OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 55W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N50W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 31N46W...TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 19N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND AND CONFLUENT WIND FLOW ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N43W...TO 30N53W 28N60W 24N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS... TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 13N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT