000 AXNT20 KNHC 240006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N18W TO 6N18W AND ITS NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT IS BEING ENGULFED BY DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK. THIS IS HINDERING THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION AND LIMITING IT TO A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION SE OF THE AXIS IN THE MONSOON ENVIRONMENT FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 15W- 18W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NE OF FRENCH GUIANA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N45W TO 5N50W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE NOTICED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL COL OR REGION OF LOW PRESSURE COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS AND NEAR 300 NM W OF IT. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N91W TO 14N93W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. EVEN THAT AN OVERALL MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE GULF. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO NORTHERN SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N20W TO 7N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N24W TO 4N34W TO 4N42W TO 6N47W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 24W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SW N ATLC AND GENERATES DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-96W AND BETWEEN 87W-90W. THE TROUGH ALOFT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC TO E OF 90W WITH GENERALLY E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W INTO EASTERN MEXICO TUE MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO OVER HONDURAS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THAT IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HAITI. OVER THE SW BASIN...BOTH THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS S OF 13N W OF 78W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF HAZE ENHANCED BY REMNANT DUST ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER EVENT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NE OF FRENCH GUIANA IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TUE AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A W-NW MOVING MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN PREVAILS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA TO PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC. SHOWERS BEING ENHANCED BY THIS UPPER TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA EXTENDS 40 NM OFF THE COASTLINE N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 60W-67W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. LASTLY...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR