000 AXNT20 KNHC 231759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO 16N43W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD THAT COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS. THE WAVE HAS BECOME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES BY EARLY TUESDAY IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 43W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N90W TO 20N88W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE FINDS ITSELF BENEATH AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N105W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N21W TO 06N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N24W TO 05N32W TO 09N46W TO 06N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 23W- 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES THE GULF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NW BAHAMAS SW TO A NARROW BASE OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W AND A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N105W WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS. OVERALL WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE TO THE WEST...IT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 25N WITH GENERALLY E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW OCCURRING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 82W-89W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS SW TO OVER HONDURAS THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 67W-84W. THIS OVERALL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ORIGINATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 75W. THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N IS ALSO LIKELY AIDING IN THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE... ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 72W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SCATTERED CLOUDINESS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG 81W. WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH ATLC THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH THE TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 33N72W. WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 33N70W W-SW TO 32N77W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N74W SW TO 29N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 75W-80W IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 25N. WITH OVERALL DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 59W-67W EAST OF A WEAK BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS. LASTLY...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN