000 AXNT20 KNHC 222327 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 13N38W TO 6N29W MOVING W 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 6N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N26W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N37W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N41W AND CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N E OF 17W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 12W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED INLAND OVER SW MEXICO AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA BAY FLORIDA AND A E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 26N90W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS SPREADING DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA ARE SPREADING N INTO THE SE GULF WATERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 81W-85W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF AND MOVE TO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM N VENEZUELA ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID TO UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 28N66W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 80W AND THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA IS CREATING A SECOND AREA OF DIFFLUENCE THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 65W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW