000 AXNT20 KNHC 221748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N34W TO 16N34W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE CLOUD FIELD THAT COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES BY EARLY TUESDAY IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 20N83W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO FRACTURE OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE WAVE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 80W-87W...AND FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 80W- 84W. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N22W TO 06N28W TO 07N35W TO 03N47W TO 03N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08W BETWEEN 37W-44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 51W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES THE GULF BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W AND A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N102W WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. OVERALL THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON FURTHER SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG 25N TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N89W. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING AT THIS TIME IS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 82W-85W. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ALONG 84W TO A BROAD BASE OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGHING AMIDST A TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THE AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 72W-85W...AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG 84W. WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 31N73W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N69W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING W-SW TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N79W. THE OVERALL AREA OF FRONTAL TROUGHING EXTENDS TO 29N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 70W-74W. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 25N...HOWEVER LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. LASTLY...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN