000 AXNT20 KNHC 221029 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N30W TO 7N30W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BOTH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK HINDER DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N78W TO 9N82W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS IN A DIFFLUENCE ZONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-83W AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 10N21W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N21W TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N29W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N43W TO 4N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 15W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N W OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 27N91W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 89W. FURTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF TO A PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N E OF 84W. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAIN THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N92W TO 14N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THIS REGION OF THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGING IS GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN BY TUE MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS STARTING MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING FROM THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH ALOFT WHILE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ENHANCES SHOWERS IN THIS REGION AS WELL AS HAITI. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE NE BASIN THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION S OF 17N RANGE FROM 20-25 KT WHILE A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. REMNANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK IS SUPPORTING HAZE AND DUSTY SKIES OVER THE E- SE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MON THEN ENTER THE GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. DUE TO THE RAINS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ONAMET HAS ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. PLEASE SEE ONAMET WEBSITE AT WWW.ONMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N BETWEEN 66W- 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N43W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR