000 AXNT20 KNHC 220601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N27W TO 5N29W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BOTH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK HINDER DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N78W TO 9N77W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS IN A DIFFLUENCE ZONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-84W AND S OF 13N W OF 80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N31W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 5N43W TO 3N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 7N-10N E OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 34W-44W AND FROM 3N-5N W OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N91W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 87W. FURTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF TO A PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAIN THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING IS GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN BY TUE MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS STARTING MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING FROM THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH ALOFT WHILE DIFFLUECE ALOFT ENHANCES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ENHANCES SHOWERS IN THIS REGION AS WELL AS HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE NE BASIN THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION RANGE FROM 20-25 KT WHILE A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. REMNANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK IS SUPPORTING HAZE AND DUSTY SKIES OVER THE E-SE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER HAITI AND NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ADJACENT WATERS. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT TAPERING OFF ON SUN. DUE TO THE RAINS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ONAMET HAS ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. PLEASE SEE ONAMET WEBSITE AT WWW.ONMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 30N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 75W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 23N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N73W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 68W-78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1013 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR