000 AXNT20 KNHC 212335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 16N26W TO 7N27W MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH A MID LEVEL LOW HAS NOW DISSIPATED AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N78W TO 9N77W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE. TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N26W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N29W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N39W TO 2N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N92W IS PROVIDING A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE GULF CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS S OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA ALONG 25N89W TO GALVESTON TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF COUPLED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY N FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS SPREADING DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 90W. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-84W INCLUDING ALL OF CUBA...JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND N OF 18N OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT TAPERING OFF ON SUN. DUE TO THE RAINS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ONAMET HAS ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. PLEASE SEE ONAMET WEBSITE AT WWW.ONMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 30N74W CROSSING S FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS OF A WEAK 1014 MB LOW THAT IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND VERO BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 30N66W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS OF ANDROS...NASSAU...AND ELEUTHERA. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1014 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW