000 AXNT20 KNHC 211032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N24W TO 2N23W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. ALTHOUGH REDUCED OVERNIGHT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH MID- UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 20W-29W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N31W TO 2N30W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS ENGULFING THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 30W-33W. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N71W TO 9N71W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 63W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N94W THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 13N95W. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 88W. FURTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SW N ATLC ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT ARE KEEPING THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING IS GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NW VENEZUELA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE NE OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF PUERTO RICO BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS GENERATING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR HISPANIOLA AND NW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC WHERE IT SUPPORTS REMNANTS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE RIDGE COVERING GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC AND GENERATES DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF PUERTO RICO AND NE OF HISPANIOLA. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 58W SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 57W-58W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS...ONE NEAR 27N43W AND OTHER NEAR 28N32W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR