000 AXNT20 KNHC 210605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WAVES DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS THE WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 23W AND A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIES IT. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT POSITION THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 19W-26W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N29W TO 4N30W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS ENGULFING THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 29W-32W. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N69W TO 9N71W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 62W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N94W THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 12N95W. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N17W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N20W TO 6N29W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 2N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N88W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. FURTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SW N ATLC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW FLORIDA THAT IS ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ARE KEEPING THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING IS GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NW VENEZUELA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THESE TERRITORIES. A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY TAPERING OFF ON SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC WHERE IT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N79W. THE RIDGE COVERING GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC AND GENERATES DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 62W-70W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 54W GENERATING SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 52W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 27N46W AND 28N32W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE HIGHS EXTENDING FROM 30N35W TO 26N38W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR